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MANIFOLD
In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot
40
Ṁ1kṀ8k
2034
0.7%
2024
1%
2025
6%
2026
34%
>2030
58%
Other

Resolution Clarifications:

  • Product rename does not change the outcome, i.e. the bot's name does not need to be "Optimus" for a positive resolution of a specific year

  • "Other" = Cancellation of the Optimus Program, Insolvency, Significant Change of Design (Humanoid -> 4-legged does not count, humanoid -> 6DoF Arm counts as "Other")

Mass production indicators:

first deliveries

explicit communication of mass production start

announcement of a number of produced "Optimus" Bots that is > x

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If tesla produces the hardware in sufficient numbers in 2026 but the AI needed for it to be safe and useful enough to customers (i.e not Tesla) is not ready until 2028, when would this question resolve to?

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 15% order

Since there's a ">2030" answer, this market can close at the end of 2030.

opened a Ṁ47 YES at 10% order

@Yves My interpretation of this matches yours, right?

2026 is a forgone conclusion

@Yves There is a 2k/666 limit order on 2024 NO 25%. It's just waiting for you...

Im Watching You How I Met Your Mother GIF by Laff

Mass production indicators:

  • first deliveries

  • explicit communication of mass production start

  • announcement of a number of produced "Optimus" Bots that is > x

Other Suggestions??

@Yves please write in the description the criteria for mass production

@Yves How big does x have to be?
1k ? Seems too low
10k ?
100k ?

Please put up some criteria for mass production.

@Lion Will this question resolve if the robot is renamed?

@Lion Product Rename does not change the outcome

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