In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot
28
1kṀ4360
2034
0.6%
2024
6%
2025
29%
2026
6%
>2030
58%
Other

Resolution Clarifications:

  • Product rename does not change the outcome, i.e. the bot's name does not need to be "Optimus" for a positive resolution of a specific year

  • "Other" = Cancellation of the Optimus Program, Insolvency, Significant Change of Design (Humanoid -> 4-legged does not count, humanoid -> 6DoF Arm counts as "Other")

Mass production indicators:

first deliveries

explicit communication of mass production start

announcement of a number of produced "Optimus" Bots that is > x

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