MANIFOLD
In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot
35
Ṁ1kṀ5.5k
2034
0.6%
2024
4%
2025
7%
2026
16%
>2030
72%
Other

Resolution Clarifications:

  • Product rename does not change the outcome, i.e. the bot's name does not need to be "Optimus" for a positive resolution of a specific year

  • "Other" = Cancellation of the Optimus Program, Insolvency, Significant Change of Design (Humanoid -> 4-legged does not count, humanoid -> 6DoF Arm counts as "Other")

Mass production indicators:

first deliveries

explicit communication of mass production start

announcement of a number of produced "Optimus" Bots that is > x

Market context
Elon musk
Tesla
Humanoid robotics
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opened a Ṁ100 YES at 15% order

Since there's a ">2030" answer, this market can close at the end of 2030.

2026 is a forgone conclusion

@Yves There is a 2k/666 limit order on 2024 NO 25%. It's just waiting for you...

Im Watching You How I Met Your Mother GIF by Laff

Mass production indicators:

  • first deliveries

  • explicit communication of mass production start

  • announcement of a number of produced "Optimus" Bots that is > x

Other Suggestions??

@Yves please write in the description the criteria for mass production

@Yves How big does x have to be?
1k ? Seems too low
10k ?
100k ?

Please put up some criteria for mass production.

@Lion Will this question resolve if the robot is renamed?

@Lion Product Rename does not change the outcome

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Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?
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Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?
+4% 1d11% chance
Will Tesla robotaxies hit the market before Jan 1 2027?
-5% 1d55% chance
When will Tesla bots be commercially available?
Will Tesla sell Optimus robots to the public by the end of 2027?
+8% 1d14% chance
What year will the 1,000,000th Tesla Optimus Humanoid Robot be built?
Will Optimus robot be able to change a tire on a Tesla car before 2028 ?
-3% 1d39% chance
In what year will it first become possible to order a Tesla Optimus?
How much would the Tesla Optimus Robot cost to buy if it went into production?
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