The National Survey on Drug Use and Health surveys the proportion of people who have consumed at least one alcoholic drink in the last 30 days.
Alcohol consumption rates over past month for some recent years are as follows:
2018: 56.3% (https://www.samhsa.gov/data/report/2019-nsduh-detailed-tables)
2019: 55.9% (https://www.samhsa.gov/data/report/2019-nsduh-detailed-tables)
2020: 55.3% (https://www.samhsa.gov/data/report/2020-nsduh-detailed-tables Table 2.8B)
2021: 52.8% (https://www.samhsa.gov/data/report/2021-nsduh-detailed-tables)
Will the NSDUH figure for 2022, when released, be at or above the figure for 2021?
The market resolves YES if the NSDUH proportion of people who have consumed at least one alcoholic drink in the last 30 days for 2022 is at least 52.8%, and resolves NO otherwise.
I'll endeavor to close the market after the figure has been posted on the NSDUH website.
Jan 27, 11:44pm: Will more US adults consume more alcohol in 2022 than in 2021, in an average month? → Will more US adults consume alcohol in 2022 than in 2021, in an average month?
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See Table 2.27B here: https://www.samhsa.gov/data/sites/default/files/reports/rpt42728/NSDUHDetailedTabs2022/NSDUHDetailedTabs2022/NSDUHDetTabsSect2pe2022.htm#tab2.1a
2021 proportion: 52.5% of people aged 21+
2022 proportion: 54.1% of people aged 21+
NSDUH detailed tables for 2021 came out in January 2023, so I anticipate a January 2024 timeline for the NSDUH 2022 tables. That will resolve this market.