
In which year will France legalize recreational usage of cannabis ?
10
440Ṁ3302060
2033
expected
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is according to the date the law is applied.
I set 2060 as maximum value. It will be market result if it's not legal until then.
If in 2050, there is still no progress, I propose to create a market "How many years from now..." with a log scale.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will marijuana (cannabis) be legalised for recreational use in the UK by 2026?
1% chance
Which states in the USA will legalize the recreational use of Marijuana (Cannabis) (Weed) before 2026?
Will Cannabis be legal in Germany at the end of 2025?
81% chance
Will you be able to buy Cannabis legally in Germany before 2026?
12% chance
Will legal international trade in recreational cannabis happen before 2034?
76% chance
When will England legalize weed?
2038
When will recreational cannabis be Federally legalised in Australia?
Will the state of Louisiana legalize marijuana by the end of 2030?
39% chance
Will Sweden legalize or decriminalize the use of Cannabis by 2030?
25% chance
Will Mexico formally legalize cannabis by the end of 2025?
43% chance