In 2030, will more than 30 million people in the US aged 18+ have tried ecstasy (MDMA/molly) in their lifetimes?
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12
578
2030
55%
chance

The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) surveys the number of people who have ever used ecstasy, also known as MDMA or Molly.

Will the NSDUH figure for 2030, when released, be above 30 million?

The market resolves YES if the NSDUH number of US adults (18+) in 2030 who have ever used ecstasy, as reported by the National Survey on Drug Use and Health for that year, is more than 30 million.

If the NSDUH does not report figures, closest available government source will be used.

Usage stats:

2019: 19,872,000

2020: 20,295,000

2021: 20,976,000

See the NSDUH Detailed Tables for each corresponding year at https://www.samhsa.gov/data/all-reports

The data for each year may not be directly comparable as the NSDUH does change their survey methodology from year to year.

The percentage figure reported by NSDUH, to one decimal point (as presented above) will be used to determine the outcome.

(EDIT 2 Feb 2023) SDUH's data on illicit drug usage is more detailed than legal drug usage. If there is legal usage of MDMA in 2030 that NSDUH doesn't cover, I will do my best to use respected sources such as ClinCalc.com to resolve this market.

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predicts YES

MDMA will likely be approved for treating PTSD this year: https://mapspublicbenefit.com/press-releases/maps-pbc-announces-positive-results-from-confirmatory-phase-3-mapp2-trial/ once that happens it opens the door for other medical uses (addiction treatment, depression, etc)

@egroj you're suggesting that doctors could use it for off-label treatment as soon as they can use it for its medically approved use?

@B yes because most of the risks, side effects, etc have already been determined. FDA has information about off-label use: https://www.fda.gov/patients/learn-about-expanded-access-and-other-treatment-options/understanding-unapproved-use-approved-drugs-label
And also it is far easier to do trials for a medication that is already approved for something else. Right now MDMA is schedule 1 so trials are very difficult to conduct.

@egroj there's one thing I need to clarify: NSDUH's has a specific category for "illicit drug use"; I am not sure how they add or track prescribed uses of formerly illicit drugs. Their illicit category for marijuana has certainly climbed a lot in the past decade but the situation for MJ is different, because most people aren't taking a medically approved product when they use MJ and it is still classed as illicit at the federal level. I think if they continue the "MDMA" category but only include illicit uses, I will resolve the market to that category. If they remove it altogether the market will be cancelled unresolved. If they have one or more MDMA categories that include both illicit and licit use of MDMA I will include all of it.

predicts YES

@B I assume that they will do the same as what they do for cannabis, do they have two categories for that?

@egroj they do not, but cannabis hasn't been medically approved in a clinical trial, or rather, one THC-derived drug has, but most people aren't taking that.

The concern might be that currently, "use and misuse of prescription stimulants" is divided into Amphetamines, Methylphenidate, Anorectic stimulants, provigil, and "any other". MDMA is an amphetamine, so they could choose to group it within that category, and if they did that, I couldn't measure use and misuse of prescription MDMA (see https://www.samhsa.gov/data/report/2021-nsduh-detailed-tables, Table 1.112A). Presumably there would still be illicit use of illicitly produced MDMA that would be recorded under the "illicit" category. But hopefully, if MDMA is approved, they'll give it its own category under prescription stimulants.

predicts YES

@B since illegal cannabis has been increasing so much, I wonder if they consider any recreational and medical use illegal because it is technically still illegal under federal law. If you do not end up considering "legal" use for MDMA I think that you should change the title to address that it only concerns "illegal" use (you can define those terms in the description). But I think that it is a better option to consider another source that will consider both legal and illegal use

@egroj let's say we get to 2030 and NSDUH doesn't collect stats on prescription MDMA use. I'd prefer to use another source, but it's not clear one exists. Considering a commonly prescribed amphetamine, Bupropion, the best usage statistics I can find are here: https://clincalc.com/DrugStats/Drugs/Bupropion but I am not sure how reliable I'd consider this source.

You might be right a name change is in order, but I'd prefer not to rule out legal use if the data is available.

@egroj I have added "NSDUH's data on illicit drug usage is more detailed than legal drug usage. If there is legal usage of MDMA in 2030 that NSDUH doesn't cover, I will do my best to use respected sources such as ClinCalc.com to resolve this market."

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