In 2030, will more than 30 million people in the US aged 18+ have tried ecstasy (MDMA/molly) in their lifetimes? | Manifold

In 2030, will more than 30 million people in the US aged 18+ have tried ecstasy (MDMA/molly) in their lifetimes?

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2030

58%

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The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) surveys the number of people who have ever used ecstasy, also known as MDMA or Molly.

Will the NSDUH figure for 2030, when released, be above 30 million?

The market resolves YES if the NSDUH number of US adults (18+) in 2030 who have ever used ecstasy, as reported by the National Survey on Drug Use and Health for that year, is more than 30 million.

If the NSDUH does not report figures, closest available government source will be used.

Usage stats:

2019: 19,872,000

2020: 20,295,000

2021: 20,976,000

See the NSDUH Detailed Tables for each corresponding year at https://www.samhsa.gov/data/all-reports

The data for each year may not be directly comparable as the NSDUH does change their survey methodology from year to year.

The percentage figure reported by NSDUH, to one decimal point (as presented above) will be used to determine the outcome.

(EDIT 2 Feb 2023) SDUH's data on illicit drug usage is more detailed than legal drug usage. If there is legal usage of MDMA in 2030 that NSDUH doesn't cover, I will do my best to use respected sources such as ClinCalc.com to resolve this market.

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