Will use the democracy matrix (https://www.democracymatrix.com/ranking) to determine the level of democracy. If the US has slid down in score by 0.1 (its current score is 0.8), this will be considered a significant decrease in the US’ democracy level, and the market will be resolved YES. Otherwise, the market will resolve NO.
Corrections are always appreciated.
Market will close at the end of 2025.
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The fact that Germany is #5 here is telling.
No country where people are frequently arrested and have their devices confiscated for speech can be truly democratic. So I don't trust the way this specific organization is measuring democracy.
@DanW Never said they were equivalent. But certain liberal principles, like free speech, are required for a fully functioning democracy.
Imagine a county with an otherwise ideal democracy where saying you support anything other than the ruling party's policies gets you thrown in jail (but you can still vote from jail :) ).
Would say that that country is perfectly democratic and merely illiberal?
Interesting market! I had similar concerns to Bruno's but I think your description is clear.
"The US could improve very significantly and still move down 10 or 20 or 50 rankings, as long as that many countries below it improve more than it does."
You might consider changing the question title to something such as: "Will the United States fall 10 positions or more in democratic rankings?"
It is significantly unclear to me what exactly it is that you're asking.
The source you provide already ranks the US as a "deficient democracy". Does the question resolve YES unless the US is promoted to "working democracy"?
> If the US has slid down by 10 rankings
The US could improve very significantly and still move down 10 or 20 or 50 rankings, as long as that many countries below it improve more than it does.
> this will be considered a significant decrease in the US’ democracy level
Is the question about a stock variable (the US is non-democratic) or a flow variable (the level of democracy in the US decreases)?
You've already got a source, which is great. Now my suggestion to you is: make a clear and concise statement of the form "if the value for the US in this ranking is X, then the market resolves YES, otherwise it resolves NO". You can take any of the several things in the source: total value index, rank among countries, qualitative classification (e.g. "working democracy"), and you can say things like "YES if value is less than Y, NO otherwise".
Specifically, you can ask: will this source still rate the US as a "deficient democracy" or worse? That is a clear YES/NO.
@DonQuixote my pleasure! I'll put one thing here to help us remember one year from now: the US' score is 0.811 to be precise, and the value refers to the 2020 index.