What happens if Trump wins 2024 elections? [unlinked, add your answers]

Question

Answers resolve to YES or NO if the event clearly did or did not happen by the date specified in the answer (2030-01-01 by default). In case it is unclear or controversial whether the event happened, resolves N/A.

Sibling market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/JuJumper/what-happens-if-biden-wins-2024-ele)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, The U.S.'s democracy index, as measured by the Economist Intelligence Unit, goes down by at least .1 from 2024 to 2028., followed by Trump serves full second term and Democrats win the House majority in 2026. are most likely. See the market for live updates (42 traders, as of Oct 13, 2025).