Does not relinquish power at end of term, if still living

Ukraine war reaches a ceasefire that is observed for 1 year 

Democrats win the House majority in 2026.

His VP becomes the Republican presidential nominee in 2028.

The U.S.'s democracy index, as measured by the Economist Intelligence Unit, goes down by at least .1 from 2024 to 2028.

A national abortion ban is passed during his term.

Trump pardons himself (regardless of whether the self-pardon is overruled by court decision)

The U.S. has a higher World Press Freedom Index in 2028 than 2024.

The S&P 500 will be above 5000 at the end of 2024

he has a fatal or near-fatal health issue while in office

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is President on January 21, 2029

Inflation is higher when he leaves office than when he takes office

Answers resolve to YES or NO if the event clearly did or did not happen by the date specified in the answer (2030-01-01 by default). In case it is unclear or controversial whether the event happened, resolves N/A.