Resolves to the first to take place if multiple happen within quick succession.
If two or more happen and it cannot be determined which started first, the answer of greater severity should be chosen first (invasion>blockade>quarantine)
All answers should be read as 'the main island of Taiwan'.
I have removed 'amphibious' from CSIS's option, since I can only see downside to including it.
Resolves to None if none have happened by Jan 1st 2029
Resolves based on a holistic view of BBC reporting about any event.
I may bet on this market, and will hand off resolution decision-making if it seems advisable.
Based on a CSIS report:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/surveying-experts-us-and-taiwan-views-chinas-approach-taiwan
Summary thread:
https://x.com/BrianTHart/status/1749486237193322557?s=20
A more complex question based on the same report:
https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/taiwanchina-potential-conflict-whic
1,000
3.00@jbohman9 I have changed this option from Amphibious Invasion to Invasion. Let me know if this incurs you a mana cost.
@JoshuaWilkes would an attack on kinmen count in this case for example? Or does it need to be on the main island?