Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if China launches a military invasion of Taiwan before 14 January 2026. An invasion is defined as a direct military attack involving amphibious or airborne operations with the intent to seize and occupy Taiwanese territory. The resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.) confirming that such operations have commenced.

Background

China conducted what it described as its largest Taiwan-focused military exercises to date in December 2025, launching expansive drills that included live-fire elements and simulated island encirclement operations. Most analysts stop short of predicting an imminent Chinese invasion, though the risk of miscalculation has grown.

An amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be among the most complex military operations in modern history, carrying enormous political, economic and military risks for China — whose armed forces have not fought a major war since its 1979 invasion of Vietnam. China does not have nearly enough amphibious capabilities — vessels to transport hundreds of thousands of PLA soldiers to the Taiwanese mainland — to actually occupy the country.

Many defense analysts argue that Beijing has strong incentives to continue applying pressure through gray-zone tactics — cyber operations, economic coercion, legal warfare and military intimidation — rather than crossing the threshold into open war.

Considerations

The U.S. military has been operating for the past five years under the assumption that the Chinese military is preparing to take Taiwan by force as soon as 2027. The 14 January 2026 deadline is significantly earlier than this widely-cited timeline, making an invasion within this timeframe substantially less likely than analysts' longer-term assessments.