This is the same as https://manifold.markets/Pepe/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-manifo but 30% didn't seem high enough. The goal of this question is to see if I would have enough warning to buy a plane ticket out.
We will examine the most traded Manifold market about China invading Taiwan with a deadline of at most 6 months. If 3 days before an invasion (or a blockade of flights!) that market says at least 35% then this question resolves YES. In addition, I will do the same thing for the most traded market about an aerial blockade.
If both markets are below the threshold, this resolves NO.
A blockade of flights counts if China announces they will attack flights to or from Taiwan and as a result there is a 24 hour period where flights are at most 25% of what would be normally expected. E.g. compare to the same time of year and week the previous year. It also counts if they threaten some other form of retaliation that leads to this outcome, e.g. economic or political sanctions against countries that continue to fly to Taiwan. A decrease to 25% of flights will not count if it is due to some other factor, e.g. a pandemic. I will use my judgement.
If China does not invade Taiwan or block flights by end of 2035 this resolves N/A.
If Manifold ceases to function, resolution depends on Polymarket. If that ceases to function, it depends on the most traded public market on any platform. (Of course in that case this question won't resolve, but bet with your honor!)
Compare to Russia invading Ukraine:
- There were a number of markets for the full year 2022, with several created in Jan.
- The median hit 30% on Jan 05
- The median hit 40% on Jan 21
- The median hit 50% on Jan 28
- The median spiked to 75% on Feb 18-19 (a little unclear form graph)
- Russia invaded on Feb 24
https://x.com/ClayGraubard/status/1496699988801433602
1,000