Taiwan-China Potential Conflict: which of these will happen first, before 2029? #2

500Ṁ48

2029

21%

Quarantine/blockade of Taiwan's outlying island(s)

10%

Law enforcement-led quarantine of main island of Taiwan

10%

Forceful seizure of Taiwan's outlying island(s)

10%

PLA-led blockade of Taiwan

10%

Invasion of Taiwan

40%

None

Resolves to the first to take place if multiple happen within quick succession.

If two or more happen and it cannot be determined which started first, the answer of greater severity should be chosen first (invasion>blockade>seizure of outlying island>quarantine of main island>quarantine/blockade of outlying island)

I have combined the two blockade options into one for simplicity and clarity.

I have added in 'law enforcement-led' and 'PLA-led' to mirror the other question, and to create clarity between the options.

I have added /blockade to the outlying island option because I can only see downside to not doing so.

Resolves to None if none have happened by Jan 1st 2029.

I will not bet on this market.

Based on a CSIS report:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/surveying-experts-us-and-taiwan-views-chinas-approach-taiwan

Summary thread:

https://x.com/BrianTHart/status/1749486237193322557?s=20

A simpler market based on the same report:

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/which-of-these-will-happen-first-be

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I'm inclined to believe that none of this will happen. The occurrence of any one of these would cause a rapid deterioration in Sino-US relations, with a significant negative impact on economic development and therefore political risk. Neither China nor the US would have the incentive to push the situation to this point. Taiwan is also unlikely to take political adventures against the wishes of the United States.