Will I think that CEA has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?
10
28
610
2027
36%
chance

Resolves YES if, in the best judgement of me or people I trust, Centre for Effective Altruism has committed a significant malfeasance before end of 2026. Else resolves NO.

See also:

https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/will-vox-write-an-article-about-a-s-c10c60e6e5e0

https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/will-nyt-write-an-article-about-a-s-aaa3f2ff5c16

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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predicts NO

How far in the past can it be?

@NathanpmYoung If it comes to light that they have already committed significant malfeasance some time since their founding in 2012, I will resolve YES.

For example, if, before end of 2026, we have significant evidence that they were closely involved in the FTX collapse, I will resolve YES.

What are your standards here? CEA gets criticized all the time. Some call the castle thing a very bad thing (though thats EVF and not CEA), others think thats totally fine.

@harfe I do not consider the purchase of Wytham Abbey to be "significant malfeasance". I am thinking more of things like purposeful accounting fraud. (But this market is very much subjective, and I fully understand if people are reluctant to bet on it.)

I have edited the description to include links to markets with less subjective metrics.

did someone say purposeful accounting fraud