Will I be convinced that seed oils are super bad for you by 2027?
Will I be convinced that seed oils are super bad for you by 2027?
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People have been talking lately about seed oils as the dietary Public Enemy Number One. I'm skeptical - seems like we've found a bunch of Dietary Enemies over the last century and had good reason to doubt or walk back most (e.g. is butter good or bad for you this week? I dunno).
When I close this market in 2027, will I be convinced that seed oils are super bad for you? "Convinced enough to try to remove them from my diet" is roughly the threshold here.
Trying to convince me one way or another in the comments is encouraged.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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