Will I think that 80,000 hours has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?
10
45
แน1.2Kแน430
2027
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if, in the best judgement of me or people I trust, 80,000 hours has committed a significant malfeasance before end of 2026. Else resolves NO.
See also:
https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/will-vox-write-an-article-about-a-s
https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/will-nyt-write-an-article-about-a-s
Get แน200 play money
More related questions
Related questions
By 2028, will I think Anthropic has been net-good for the world?
63% chance
Will people watch more than 100 billion hours on Netflix during the second half of 2023?
46% chance
In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?
70% chance
Will I think that alignment is no longer "preparadigmatic" by the start of 2026?
29% chance
By 2028, will I think OpenAI has been net-good for the world?
35% chance
By 2028, will I think Conjecture has been net-good for the world?
69% chance
By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?
43% chance
Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
31% chance
Will I run at least 500 hours in 2024?
33% chance
Will I have developed a decent incremental game before the end of 2025?
37% chance