Will Vox write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Basic

Ṁ742

2027

26%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if an article appears in Vox alleging a scandal or significant malfeasance at Centre for Effective Altruism before end of 2026. This is independent of whether I believe the content of the article to be valid. Else resolves NO.

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Vox is a propaganda rag and has no incentive to cover CEA in a meaningful manner

@AlQuinn If you distrust Vox, perhaps you trust NYT more, or perhaps you would be willing to trust me to be fair?

Do you have suggestions for additional oracles?

- https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/will-nyt-write-an-article-about-a-s-aaa3f2ff5c16
- https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/will-i-think-that-cea-has-done-a-si

Will I think that CEA has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?

36% chance. Resolves YES if, in the best judgement of me or people I trust, Centre for Effective Altruism has committed a significant malfeasance before end of 2026. Else resolves NO. See also: https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/will-vox-write-an-article-about-a-s-c10c60e6e5e0 https://manifold.ma…

predicts NO

@Amaryllis I trust you, random Manifold user, more than the New Woke Times

Doesn't qualify, but mentions CEA https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/2/15/23601143/effective-altruism-sexual-harassment-misconduct

Why effective altruism struggles on sexual misconduct

EA was built on making the world a better place. Can the movement police itself when it comes to sexual harassment?

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