This question is to be resolved at a time in which the ebb and flow of the known universe has receded, in which there seems to be a good notion of how the indefinite future will look like, and in which we are able to obtain decent-enough approximations of the¹ coherent extrapolated volition of (historical) groups of humans and compare it to the predicted distribution of the shapes of the future.

When such a time arrives, this question resolves to PROB, where PROB is the proportion of the future value (within that locale's approximate lightcone, if applicable) which is expected to be attained, where value is measured by the implied value system of the computed CEV of 2023 EA population of the Earth — so it resolves to 50% if it is expected that 50% of future value will be attained.

By "effective altruists" I mean both people who considers themselves as EAs, and people that >75% of "highly-engaged EAs" would judge to be actively striving to do good in this world, and effectively so.

In case the future value turns out to be infinite, this market resolves to its adapted version which the resolvers think most corresponds in spirit to the current one.

¹If CEV is not unique, resolvers of this market are free to use a reasonable statistic to collapse the implied set of proportions onto just one. (E.g. mean or median?). If the set of CEVs is empty, conditions should be relaxed in some reasonable way until there is at least one.

Likewise, other parameters of this market are free to be liberally interpreted or changed by the resolvers, as they see fit, if certain parts of it are confused and there are interpretations which are more appropriate but which preserve the intention of the market.