Allocatress's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -5.35
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Allocatress bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
- Will there be a funding commitment of at least $1 billion in 2023 to a program for mitigating AI risk?NOṀ10
- Will OpenAI charge more than $20/month for access to ChatGPT at any point before July?NOṀ10
- Will there be a funding commitment of at least $1 billion in 2023 to a program for mitigating AI risk?NOṀ5
40%
50%
60%
- Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?NOṀ10
- Will any EU country, apart from Italy, will ban, fine or restrict ChatGPT on grounds of the GDPR regulation during 2023?NOṀ10
- Will any EU country, apart from Italy, will ban, fine or restrict ChatGPT on grounds of the GDPR regulation during 2023?NOṀ2
70%
80%
90%