Will it be confirmed that the Nashville Covenant School shooter is trans?
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resolved May 31
Resolved
YES
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Where my Yes holders at? Any mainstream sources on whether the shooter was trans?

predicted NO

As of yet, I don't think that we have anything conclusive on the shooter's gender identity. Before this market is resolved, I think it would be useful to post reasons for its resolution. AFAIK, the only evidence we have that the shooter identified as male is a linkedin page that used male pronouns, and a single Facebook post that asked for the same (which was alleged by an unnamed teacher in an interview, haven't seen that post confirmed.)

I consider this evidence quite shaky!

predicted NO

@ForrestTaylor This might seem like I'm trying to pull some BS, but seriously, I just looked over my own post history and I quickly found examples of me claiming to be a girl and expressing the wish to be a girl. I consider myself a cisgender man, so, think of me what you will, but a question like this can't always be resolved by a couple posts!

@johnleoks What qualifies as "trans" here? Is self ID sufficient?

@jonmast No, the self ID model isn't sufficient otherwise you'll have to take people like Steven Crowder seriously whenever he calls himself a trans woman when we know he's obviously trolling.

A trans person is an AMAB or AFAB individual whose gender identity is of the opposite sex. They make an effort to match their internal sense of gender with their gender expression, usually through appearances and behavior.

predicted YES

@Gigacasting your comments here paint you as a total weirdo

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@bg I would at least tolerate it if he bought in the markets where he does this weird shit, but he just likes making insane comments and not buying at all

I’ll take MTF for $1000

(4 standard deviation spread in mass shooting, manifesto, and especially “detailed maps” 😉)

They wanted “white mass shooters” and instead it’s all minorities and trns

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