
When researching GPT-4 speculations, the estimated parameter count ranged anywhere from 175 billion (same as GPT-3) to over 100 trillion.
This market will resolve YES if GPT-4 has over 1 trillion parameters, otherwise it will resolve NO. The market close date will be indefinitely extended until an official figure for the total number of trainable parameters of the largest released model at initial release has been announced.
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If it's a mixture of experts I personally wouldn't sum all the parameters across the experts for the purpose of this question. I think it's distinct

@Nostr0m agreed, it's like saying 8 x 220B model can reach the same level of connectivity as 1.76T model, which it does not. No one should believe GPT4 model is over 1 trillion because they have a mixture model. This market is mispriced because people fundamentally do not understand how transformer networks work.

Leak from Microsoft indicating that GPT-3.5 is only 20B params, implying that the rumors about GPT-4 being 1.76T are a lot less plausible..

@firstuserhere Given how many open source models of that scale are now exhibiting comparable performance, it's not implausible that it really is only 20B.

Polymarket on GPT-4 having 500B+ parameters at 62%
https://polymarket.com/event/will-gpt-4-have-500b-parameters

@firstuserhere Will someone please explain how Mira is saying it's 220Bx8 and also 1.2T but 220B x 8 > 1.2T by a lot
@firstuserhere From that market's description: "If GPT-4 is not released by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.". Not sure if this applies to the case where it has been released but the parameter information hasn't.
@NamesAreHard yeah that sounds like a decent hypothesis for the price difference between the two

@firstuserhere If anyone wants to arbitrage this and the /jack/gpt4-have-500b-parameters Polymarket mirror(on the idea it should be higher than this market, since 1 trillion implies 500b+), I can sell you a spread. Probably 10% @ [45,55%] so I buy YES here from you at 55% and NO on the 500b from you at 45%. Then regardless of what number OpenAI announces you'd be guaranteed a profit.
M50k minimum, but if you don't have enough money I can arrange financing.


@nmehndir Came from multiple sources over multiple dates. Usually means it's legitimate (but not always)

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