Will GPT-4 have over 1 trillion parameters?

Embedded Agent

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Ṁ940K

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Dec 31

86%

chance

ALL

When researching GPT-4 speculations, the estimated parameter count ranged anywhere from 175 billion (same as GPT-3) to over 100 trillion.

This market will resolve YES if GPT-4 has over 1 trillion parameters, otherwise it will resolve NO. The market close date will be indefinitely extended until an official figure for the total number of trainable parameters of the largest released model at initial release has been announced.

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Julio Yurivilcabought Ṁ10 of YES

Comment hidden

Nostr0mpredicts NO

If it's a mixture of experts I personally wouldn't sum all the parameters across the experts for the purpose of this question. I think it's distinct

Matchlesspredicts NO

@Nostr0m agreed, it's like saying 8 x 220B model can reach the same level of connectivity as 1.76T model, which it does not. No one should believe GPT4 model is over 1 trillion because they have a mixture model. This market is mispriced because people fundamentally do not understand how transformer networks work.

Jon Simonbought Ṁ100 of NO

Leak from Microsoft indicating that GPT-3.5 is only 20B params, implying that the rumors about GPT-4 being 1.76T are a lot less plausible..

https://x.com/Teknium1/status/1718945379612610565?s=20

firstuserhere

@jonsimon probably just a typo..

Jon Simonpredicts NO

@firstuserhere Given how many open source models of that scale are now exhibiting comparable performance, it's not implausible that it really is only 20B.

Mirabought Ṁ0 of YES

@jonsimon This is old news, since March. But I guess I'll rebuy those YES shares if people drop the market off of this.

Jon Simonpredicts NO

@Mira Where did this info appear in March?

rockenotsbought Ṁ500 of YES

@jonsimon Tweets that have since been deleted.

Jon Simonbought Ṁ0 of NO

@rockenots what was the source of the original tweets?

rockenots

@jonsimon 🍎

Mirasold Ṁ93,019 ofYES

Mira

I'm not getting loans on my profit. Need someone to cash me out at 93% to reset the cost basis, because if you enter a fresh position you'll get loans.

Dude

https://twitter.com/swyx/status/1671272883379908608

JRPpredicts NO

@jb421 Old news, not official.

Mirabought Ṁ10,000 ofYES

Jon Simon

@Mira Did OpenAI make it official or something?

Mirapredicts YES

@jonsimon No they just raised the loan rate to 4% so I have more money.

Jon Simonpredicts NO

@Mira it's true I don't know what to do with it all now either

firstuserhere

Polymarket on GPT-4 having 500B+ parameters at 62%

https://polymarket.com/event/will-gpt-4-have-500b-parameters

𝐒𝕙𝕒𝕕𝕠𝕨𝕪𝐙𝕖𝕡𝕙𝕪𝕣

@firstuserhere Will someone please explain how Mira is saying it's 220Bx8 and also 1.2T but 220B x 8 > 1.2T by a lot

NamesAreHard

@firstuserhere From that market's description: "If GPT-4 is not released by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.". Not sure if this applies to the case where it has been released but the parameter information hasn't.

firstuserheresold Ṁ162 of NO

@NamesAreHard yeah that sounds like a decent hypothesis for the price difference between the two

Mirapredicts YES

@firstuserhere If anyone wants to arbitrage this and the /jack/gpt4-have-500b-parameters Polymarket mirror(on the idea it should be higher than this market, since 1 trillion implies 500b+), I can sell you a spread. Probably 10% @ [45,55%] so I buy YES here from you at 55% and NO on the 500b from you at 45%. Then regardless of what number OpenAI announces you'd be guaranteed a profit.

M50k minimum, but if you don't have enough money I can arrange financing.