Will GPT-4 have over 1 trillion parameters?
539
6.9K
3K
Dec 31
86%
chance

When researching GPT-4 speculations, the estimated parameter count ranged anywhere from 175 billion (same as GPT-3) to over 100 trillion.

This market will resolve YES if GPT-4 has over 1 trillion parameters, otherwise it will resolve NO. The market close date will be indefinitely extended until an official figure for the total number of trainable parameters of the largest released model at initial release has been announced.

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JulioYurivilca avatar
Julio Yurivilcabought Ṁ10 of YES
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Nostr0m avatar
Nostr0mpredicts NO

If it's a mixture of experts I personally wouldn't sum all the parameters across the experts for the purpose of this question. I think it's distinct

Matchless avatar
Matchlesspredicts NO

@Nostr0m agreed, it's like saying 8 x 220B model can reach the same level of connectivity as 1.76T model, which it does not. No one should believe GPT4 model is over 1 trillion because they have a mixture model. This market is mispriced because people fundamentally do not understand how transformer networks work.

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonbought Ṁ100 of NO

Leak from Microsoft indicating that GPT-3.5 is only 20B params, implying that the rumors about GPT-4 being 1.76T are a lot less plausible..

https://x.com/Teknium1/status/1718945379612610565?s=20

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

@jonsimon probably just a typo..

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonpredicts NO

@firstuserhere Given how many open source models of that scale are now exhibiting comparable performance, it's not implausible that it really is only 20B.

Mira avatar
Mirabought Ṁ0 of YES

@jonsimon This is old news, since March. But I guess I'll rebuy those YES shares if people drop the market off of this.

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonpredicts NO

@Mira Where did this info appear in March?

rockenots avatar
rockenotsbought Ṁ500 of YES

@jonsimon Tweets that have since been deleted.

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonbought Ṁ0 of NO

@rockenots what was the source of the original tweets?

rockenots avatar
rockenots

@jonsimon 🍎

Mirasold Ṁ93,019 ofYES
Mira avatar
Mira

I'm not getting loans on my profit. Need someone to cash me out at 93% to reset the cost basis, because if you enter a fresh position you'll get loans.

parhizj avatar
JRPpredicts NO

@jb421 Old news, not official.

Mirabought Ṁ10,000 ofYES
jonsimon avatar
Jon Simon

@Mira Did OpenAI make it official or something?

Mira avatar
Mirapredicts YES

@jonsimon No they just raised the loan rate to 4% so I have more money.

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonpredicts NO

@Mira it's true I don't know what to do with it all now either

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

Polymarket on GPT-4 having 500B+ parameters at 62%

https://polymarket.com/event/will-gpt-4-have-500b-parameters

ShadowyZephyr avatar

@firstuserhere Will someone please explain how Mira is saying it's 220Bx8 and also 1.2T but 220B x 8 > 1.2T by a lot

NamesAreHard avatar
NamesAreHard

@firstuserhere From that market's description: "If GPT-4 is not released by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.". Not sure if this applies to the case where it has been released but the parameter information hasn't.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserheresold Ṁ162 of NO

@NamesAreHard yeah that sounds like a decent hypothesis for the price difference between the two

Mira avatar
Mirapredicts YES

@firstuserhere If anyone wants to arbitrage this and the /jack/gpt4-have-500b-parameters Polymarket mirror(on the idea it should be higher than this market, since 1 trillion implies 500b+), I can sell you a spread. Probably 10% @ [45,55%] so I buy YES here from you at 55% and NO on the 500b from you at 45%. Then regardless of what number OpenAI announces you'd be guaranteed a profit.

M50k minimum, but if you don't have enough money I can arrange financing.

DanMan314 avatar
Danpredicts YES

Watching @Mira rocketing from near last up the Giga Mystics leaderboard because of this market as the guy in 5th place be like:

nmehndir avatar
Namanpredicts NO

Why is everyone so confident that the leak is legitimate?

parhizj avatar
JRPbought Ṁ10 of NO

@nmehndir I also want to know.

ShadowyZephyr avatar

@nmehndir Came from multiple sources over multiple dates. Usually means it's legitimate (but not always)

parhizj avatar
JRPpredicts NO

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