Will this market's value ever hit 10%?
194
194
2.2K
resolved Apr 9
Resolved
NO

This market resolves YES if at any time, the displayed percentage of the market is at or below 10%. It resolves NO if this has not happened by the closing date, which is 1 week after creation of this market

Of course, there will be a delay between the market hitting 10% and me noticing this fact, I wonder if that can be abused... 😂

Same as this market, but with a bit more difficulty to reach YES.

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AlexRockwell avatar
Alex Rockwellbought Ṁ0 of YES

Thoughts on this market:

1) Its frustrating that it ended at 3:30 am PST, and thus hurt people who were asleep. I couldn't risk losing everything on this market for a potential 10% gain, so had to leave a buy order at 11%, and thus got my NO wiped out. Ultimately, only someone who is going to be on right at close and constantly fight to get NO position and wipe out others is going to profit on NO in these.
2) WTF was that spike to 100 at the end without it hitting 10.

3) This market really highlights the problems with not being able to place limit orders without mana, even though you have shares of that type to sell. Maniforld needs to add "buy to close"/"sell to close" orders by letting us place limit orders without mana but with a position to close.

PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'bought Ṁ200 of NO

@AlexRockwell Yeah, I wish it had ended at a different time, too. I'm in the eastern time zone, and 6:30 is one of the least likely times in the day for me to be awake. I wanted to buy a lot more NO shares, but I didn't want to risk it all when I knew I wouldn't be awake for the final hours.

FlorisvanDoorn avatar
Floris van Doornpredicted NO

@AlexRockwell I agree that it should have ended in a different time. I didn't think about that when creating the market. Most of the markets I created after this one have US friendly closing times.

FlorisvanDoorn avatar
Floris van Doornpredicted NO

I made a new version where it might be a lot more expensive to keep up the limit order wall (but maybe the profits of YES are also smaller?)

CalebDitchfield avatar
Caleb Ditchfieldpredicted YES

alas, the attempted deception was fruitless

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchpredicted NO
cloudprism avatar
Haydenpredicted YES

I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the "new %" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minute. I think limit orders count.

FlorisvanDoorn avatar
Floris van Doornbought Ṁ5,000 of NO

We did hit 100%, but I think no 10%?

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Baileypredicted NO

@FlorisvanDoorn Zooming in, I don't see it ever go below 11%

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

@BoltonBailey same. Dont think it ever hit 10

AlexbGoode avatar
Alex B. Gonebought Ṁ750 of NO

@FlorisvanDoorn I don't think it hit, but we could go through the order history

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchbought Ṁ5,000 of NO

@FlorisvanDoorn i checked through the history and we never hit

AllanLacy avatar
Allan Lacypredicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch out of curiosity: were you trying to hit 10% or to maximize your profit from a NO resolution? Both?

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchpredicted NO

@AllanLacy mainly the latter but both

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

Yo the last minute was crazy hahah, so did it ever hit 10%?

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Baileybought Ṁ2 of NO

@firstuserhere I don't think it ever hit

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Baileypredicted NO

@BoltonBailey Someone bought to near 100% though, oof.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

@BoltonBailey I was confused cuz I saw @CalebDitchfield buying 5k YES and thought it hit, but apparently mistiming?

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Baileypredicted NO

@firstuserhere Yeah I think so, might not have been a bad play, orders were getting filled super fast

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

@BoltonBailey @AnlAnar congrats dude. That's more profit in 1 market than I've got total lol

CalebDitchfield avatar
Caleb Ditchfieldbought Ṁ5,000 of YES

@firstuserhere yep just mis-timing. was hoping limits would cancel and buy-orders would go through at the last second. ah well.

SkullCandy avatar
Skull Candybought Ṁ10 of YES

~4 hours remain

cloudprism avatar
Haydenbought Ṁ500 of YES

~8 hours remain

Rwin avatar
Rwin

Currently about 270K No shares are needed. As this is a fun market, I guess manipulation isn't frowned upon.

A whale could open a market and get everyone who bets yes here to participate in their market as a bribe. As soon as the whale is overall profitting, they could invest the 270k.

I'm not exactly sure if this would work as I'm new on the platform, and if I understand correctly that bribes are ok for a j'ust for fun' market 😃

levifinkelstein avatar
Levi Finkelstein

@Rwin i think all markets are subject to profit milking, doesnt matter if it is silly or not

PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'bought Ṁ0 of YES

@levifinkelstein Self-resolving markets are subject to much more, though, since they are by nature possible to manipulate and sometimes have strategies for guaranteed profit.