On the Lex Fridman Podcast #368, Lex and Eliezer Yudkowsky debate whether there will be a huge funding commitment to a program toward mitigating AI risk.
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxXHBY4k3r6n7Ab6I4qUWbxmJExTdsTQgD
Lex hopes it will happen; Eliezer doesn't believe it will happen. The discussion specifies a $1 billion threshold, but with no specific timeframe.
This market resolves to YES if there is a prize offer or other funding commitment made in 2023, equivalent to at least US$1 billion, toward understanding and mitigating AI risk.
The program has to be a $1 billion budget commitment to a prize or to a coordinated effort by a single umbrella organization, but can be supported and funded by any combination of government or private sources. The funding only has to be committed by end of 2023, as opposed to provided or spent by end of 2023.
As reference, the Manhatten Project cost nearly $2 billion (equivalent to $24 billion in 2021). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_Project
1,000
3.00@WaddleBuddy sorry, missed on responding earlier. It would be any program that has reduction of AI risk as its explicitly stated primary objective.
Nope. It is <$1B. Also the AI safety research is only one of three areas where the $450M is to be allocated (and I suspect the smallest of the three).
"With our Series C funding, we hope to (1) grow our product offerings, (2) support businesses that will responsibly deploy Claude in the market, and (3) further AI safety research."
*notations (1),(2),(3) added
Would that count ?
https://www.anthropic.com/index/anthropic-series-c
Sam Bankman-Fried’s all-cause donations are hard to pin down but almost certainly less than $1B (here’s $190 million total from one source https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnhyatt/2022/11/14/sam-bankman-fried-promised-millions-to-nonprofits-research-groups-thats-not-going-too-well-now/?sh=3873868f5ee8)
I really doubt that anybody else in the EA space is feeling more flush than he did before his collapse. I also doubt that more conventional givers will come up to speed to that level before the end of the year. So I think that there could be considerable sums donated, and potentially $1 billion in a broader space around the AI issue than this question addresses, but nothing that would trigger this resolution criteria