A nuclear fusion reactor consistently achieves break-even energy output (Q = 1) over a 30-day period by...? | Manifold

A nuclear fusion reactor consistently achieves break-even energy output (Q = 1) over a 30-day period by...?

Plus

21

Ṁ1162

Nov 22

80%

2050

78%

2045

74%

2040

64%

2035

58%

2030

10%

2025

All years after the year this happens will resolve to YES, e.g. if it happens in 2031, then 2035, 2040 etc will all resolve in YES.

Disclaimers:

This question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site. Apologies for that. We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions.
If you would to add alternative answers, please do so in the comments!

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Foresight Vision Weekend 2023

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Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?

Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?

Will a private company demonstrate nuclear fusion net gain (>1.0 energy out vs energy in) before 12/31/2025?

In which decade will a fusion reactor project first demonstrate engineering breakeven?

When will fusion power become viable?

When will a nuclear fusion reactor produce useful electricity?

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

Will nuclear fusion become a viable energy source before 2050?

Will we have a functioning, energy-producing, nuclear fusion reactor by 2033?

Will Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) will demonstrate net energy gain (Q>1) in their SPARC reactor before 12/31/2025?

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