Will a private company demonstrate nuclear fusion net gain (>1.0 energy out vs energy in) before 12/31/2025?
113
1.1kṀ25kJan 1
6%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will 2 more parties claim to have achieved net gains in fusion energy by 2026?
10% chance
Will First Light Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will General Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
2% chance
HB11 Energy will demonstrate fusion net gain with hydrogen-boron fuel by 12/31/2027.
15% chance
Will Tokamak Energy demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will Zap Energy demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
12% chance
Will TAE demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will Helion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
3% chance
Will General Fusion's MTF machine achieve fusion conditions above 100mm degrees Celsius by 12/31/2025?
10% chance
Will General Fusion's Oxford demonstration plant be operational before Jan 1st, 2026?
11% chance
Sort by:
@Daniel_MC Great clarifying question. The energy that goes into the plasma is what I am looking at. This is likely way simpler to calculate and communicate.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will 2 more parties claim to have achieved net gains in fusion energy by 2026?
10% chance
Will First Light Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will General Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
2% chance
HB11 Energy will demonstrate fusion net gain with hydrogen-boron fuel by 12/31/2027.
15% chance
Will Tokamak Energy demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will Zap Energy demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
12% chance
Will TAE demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will Helion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
3% chance
Will General Fusion's MTF machine achieve fusion conditions above 100mm degrees Celsius by 12/31/2025?
10% chance
Will General Fusion's Oxford demonstration plant be operational before Jan 1st, 2026?
11% chance