Will Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) will demonstrate net energy gain (Q>1) in their SPARC reactor before 12/31/2025?

1kṀ29k

2026

chance

ALL

From CFS website:
Commonwealth Fusion Systems is collaborating with MIT’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center to build SPARC, the world’s first fusion device that produces plasmas which generate more energy than they consume, becoming the first net-energy fusion machine. SPARC will pave the way for carbon-free, safe, limitless, fusion power. This compact, high-field tokamak will be built with high temp superconducting (HTS) magnets, allowing for a smaller device than previous magnet technology. SPARC is an important step to accelerate the development of commercial fusion energy.

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@JakobBrunker The title asks about the end of 2025, while the close date for the market is the start of 2025. Which is it?

@SergeyDavidoff I think you meant to ping @CharlesCarriere instead of me

@SergeyDavidoff When I initially set this up, I wanted to have people make their predictions prior to the beginning of 2025, with the market resolving at the end of 2025 depending on the outcome of the reactor tests.