Will nuclear fusion become a viable energy source before 2050? | Manifold

Will nuclear fusion become a viable energy source before 2050?

46

1kṀ2928

2050

65%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

By viable it is meant to demonstrate a net energy gain sufficient to supply a medium sized population

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Does it also needs to be *economically* viable to resolve yes? Or just generally net positive?

@AlvaroRodriguez

https://manifold.markets/JuJumper/which-engineering-breakthroughs-wil

Arbitrage opportunity

Which engineering breakthroughs will happen before 2050?

Resolves YES for any number of technologies that are widespread enough in 2049 but not in 2024. Resolution criteria: Significant Adoption: The technology must be adopted to a degree that indicates it has moved beyond the experimental or niche phase. Operational Efficiency: The technology should demonstrate reliable and efficient operation in real-world conditions. Regulatory Approval: If applicable, the technology must receive approval from relevant regulatory bodies. Economic Viability: The technology should be commercially viable, with clear economic benefits. Independent Verification: The breakthrough should be independently verified by reputable sources. If it is unclear whether any given technology meets these requirements before 2050, resolves to some subjective percentage value.

What the heck is a "medium sized population"?

It already is

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