In which decade will a fusion reactor project first demonstrate engineering breakeven?
8
63
Ṁ488Ṁ645
2100
1D
1W
1M
ALL
29%
2020s
25%
2030s
12%
2040s
5%
2050s
5%
2060s
6%
2070s
6%
2080s
6%
2090s
7%
Not by 2100
Some people are really optimistic about fusion, especially given recent progress. Initial probability is still super low here anyways because fusion power has been "soon" many times in the past.
Engineering breakeven basically means that the reaction generates enough excess energy to power itself, and is explained in this wiki article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor
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