In which decade will a fusion reactor project first demonstrate engineering breakeven?
10
645Ṁ6942100
47%
2020s
30%
2030s
5%
2040s
3%
2050s
3%
2060s
3%
2070s
3%
2080s
3%
2090s
4%
Not by 2100
Some people are really optimistic about fusion, especially given recent progress. Initial probability is still super low here anyways because fusion power has been "soon" many times in the past.
Engineering breakeven basically means that the reaction generates enough excess energy to power itself, and is explained in this wiki article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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