"US law changed to allow third Trump term?"
"US law changed to allow third Trump term?"
33
1kṀ2958
2029
11%
chance

By January 20, 2029, will the U.S. Constitution be amended or otherwise legally modified to allow Donald Trump to be eligible to run for a third presidential term?

Resolution Criteria:

This question resolves to YES if and only if:

  • A constitutional amendment removing or modifying the 22nd Amendment's two-term presidential limit is ratified

  • OR a Supreme Court ruling reinterprets the 22nd Amendment in a way that specifically allows Donald Trump to run for a third term

  • OR any other legal mechanism is implemented that would make it lawful for Donald Trump specifically to pursue a third presidential term

This question resolves to NO if:

  • No such constitutional changes or legal modifications are made by January 20, 2029

  • OR any changes made do not specifically enable Donald Trump to be legally eligible for a third term

Clarifications:

  • This question is solely about the legal possibility of Trump running for a third term

  • This is NOT about whether Trump would win a primary, secure his party's nomination, win a general election, or serve a third term

  • This is NOT about whether Trump announces an intention to run for a third term

  • Changes must be legally binding and officially recognized by the appropriate U.S. governmental authorities

  • The question resolves based on the legal status as of January 20, 2029 (the date of the next presidential inauguration following the 2028 election)

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy