Will Brandon Sanderson publish at least FIVE new novels during 2023

244Ṁ780

resolved Jan 1

Resolved

YES

ALL

To count for this question, the novel must be at least 50000 words and published in a physical form which is available to the public, between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2023. Note that 4 have been announced as of this market's creation.

New Year's Resolutions 2024

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ32
2		Ṁ31
3		Ṁ15
4		Ṁ4
5		Ṁ3

People are also trading

How many new novels will Brandon Sanderson release between today (July 27, 2023) and December 31, 2030?

Will Brandon Sanderson release a previously unannounced novel outside of an existing series in 2024?

7% chance

Will Brandon Sanderson's 'secret project' release in 2025 as expected?

88% chance

Will a book by Brandon Sanderson win a Goodreads Choice Award in 2025?

46% chance

Will a movie or TV series based on a book by Brandon Sanderson be released prior to 2027?

5% chance

Will a new video game set in Brandon Sanderson's Cosmere be announced in 2024?

1% chance

Will Brandon Sanderson be credibly accused of sex crimes by 2030?

18% chance

Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?

9% chance

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

62% chance

Will Brandon Sanderson's Fanbase Migrate Away From Audible?

Sort by:

https://www.brandonsanderson.com/state-of-the-sanderson-2023/

"In this case, we’ve had five(!) new releases in one year."

Alex has just fraudulently resolved one of their other markets in order to turn a profit. I would strongly advise everyone to sell their shares here and not bet in any of Alex's future markets.

Also, please help keep other people safe from these sort of scams by going to the fraudulent market and clicking the flag in the top right corner to mark it as improperly resolved. If enough people do this, it will put a warning next to Alex's name everywhere on the site so that people know not to trust them.

Five is still too low... If the last SotS still stands (https://www.brandonsanderson.com/state-of-the-sanderson-2021) then Skyward 4 and Stormlight 5 are both due in 2023. Stormlight may get pushed to spring depending on schedules but I don't foresee Skyward getting pushed that far unless the secret projects are way more work than they expect.

@wasabipesto I'm going to make one for at least 4 through 7

I guess we'll make an option chain of how many novels Sanderson will publish in 2023 :D Here is a link to the one for 4: https://manifold.markets/AlexRockwell/will-brandon-sanderson-publish-at-l