Will this market's probability be at least 42.0% for at least 42.0% of the time it remains open?
20
177
410
resolved Mar 2
Resolved
YES

I mean, this market needed to happen, right??

Get Ṁ200 play money

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#NameTotal profit
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2Ṁ276
3Ṁ112
4Ṁ104
5Ṁ69
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Hmm if only there was a way to change the resolution...

Oh wait there is.

predicted YES

@DavidChee You did it! Nice!

predicted YES

All scammers quiver in fear. Market re-resolution is here!

DISHONORABLE RESOLUTION.

Shame on you, Alex.

@AlexRockwell You better return the profit you got from mis-resolving this market or you are getting reported

predicted YES

That's definitly not fun.

predicted YES

All: Remember to click this button so the site warns other people not to trade in his markets.

@Mira That button doesn't exist for me

predicted YES

@Yoav Looks like Manifold has removed it, I think they're reworking the system.

predicted NO

That's a lot of work for Ṁ5K.

predicted NO

er.. worse, for Ṁ785

sold Ṁ27 of NO

@EdwardKmett Anybody know why the profit number keeps changing? It was at ~1K, then ~3K, now 785...

predicted NO

@A Yeah not sure, this is weird. Its not the amount it told me earlier

predicted YES

@AlexRockwell Back to 3431 now...

predicted YES

User portfolio tab shows 3,431. That should be the correct figure.

predicted NO

@XComhghall Oh thats more than I thought actually! And more than I lost before, so I guess Im a thief!

predicted YES

@AlexRockwell Yes you are. I hereby solemnly cast the curse of not receiving any gifts from Santa Clause this Christmas on you.

predicted NO

Well not quite 2000 but somewhat close

bought Ṁ579 of NO

I can now steal back the 2000 mana I was robbed of by the bullshit itn the other market. From mostly the same people! Get rekt!

@AlexRockwell What other market?

@Jacknaut @AlexRockwell https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-markets-probability-be-at Must be this one, it's the only other one he seems to have lost 2k on.

What a weird one to be vindictively salty about...

predicted NO

@Jacknaut Im very salty. After being recruited to team yes, they sold and i lost 2k. And they didnt even make money from it, they lost like 50k. It made no sense.

predicted YES

@AlexRockwell Actually it does make perfect sense. Team YES cut their losses when it became clear that either NO was going to win, or else the market would devolve into spending tens of thousands of USD, which team yes decided wasn't a great idea on this particular market. At that point, you definitely do want to sell instead of holding on to soon-to-be-worthless shares.

@AlexRockwell If you're talking about @Mira , the way I recall seeing it at the time was that Mira wasn't able to recruit enough people, and also was not able to out-whale the NO whales on their own. So they gave up and sold out to cut their losses at 50k, instead of more, because it was a clearly loosing fight.

Either way, the worst-case scenario was that Mira was intentionally trying to screw you over, which you'd be dumb to not think that was a possibility - I thought it myself at the time.

@AlexRockwell It seems like you're more mad that "it made no sense", and you'd actually be less mad if the intention all along was to screw you over, and they successfully made a profit for it. As if their intention was to lose 50k just to screw you out of 2k. Main character syndrome or something

predicted YES

At the time you made the deal to buy YES, team yes fully intended to win and assessed a reasonably high but far from 100% probability of winning. Then the situation changed afterwards. If you wanted a deal that gave you better protection against NO resolution, you could have negotiated for it. I think the deal was a good deal for you at the time, but things turned out unluckily for the YES side. I definitely don't think you were robbed.

predicted YES

@AlexRockwell Not sure why you robbed me though.