Will a book by Brandon Sanderson win a Goodreads Choice Award in 2025?
14
68
1k
2026
44%
chance

I do not consider 2nd place an award.

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Goodreads Choice Awards

Brandon Sanderson

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predicts NO

After doing research for the 2023 and 2024 editions of this market, I found information that Brandon Sanderson's fans expect him to release a major book in mid-November 2024. That would be too late for the established pattern of Goodreads awards for the 2024 year, and thus it would probably be in line for the 2025 nominations.

From what I can tell, this major milestone book might be more impactful than some of his other releases in recent years. Maybe his fans will vote him for more awards if they really, really like it, even if he doesn't need/want the awards.

Note that as @LukeHanks collected in the 2023 market's comment thread, Sanderson has been nominated numerous times without winning and it seems like he might not need to win because he already has a huge fanbase. Maybe this one would change that trend if fans really like the upcoming book -- but, that first requires the fans to actually like a book instead of saying it is stupid.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Eliza This is probably his most awaited book in about 5-10 years. Sanderson has a solid reputation for kniocking well liked books even when he "whiffs". and this specific book has been pretty much the "centerpiece" of his biggest work (Stormlight Archive, it's book 5 out of 5 in the first set, and 5/10 of the overall series). It', in a sense, the book he's been worldbuilding towards for most of 12 years, and he has prior reputation in landing sequels and endings well (Mistborn 3 was my personal favourite).

In other words, out of his last few years, this is his book I'd bet most on "It will be well written" AND "fans will love it and go crazy". Combine that with "People who think he deerves an award by now will probably push him for WaT".. I'd put decent odds that this is the year Sanderson wins an award.

Tell me more. It looks like there is a strict criteria for book release date. Is it probably going to be between November 2024 to November 2025? Does he have any books planned to come out in that slot?

@Eliza I don't know of anything specific planned, but Brandon Sanderson has published multiple books per year for the past decade (see his bibliography), so there's a good chance he'll publish something between November 2024 and November 2025.

@LukeHanks It looks like he could write things to qualify for at least a couple of the categories, but this looks like a very tough award to win given the way the voting is structured. I'm going to play No for now, pending more info. 45% seems too high for something he has not really seemed to win regularly in the past.

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