Will Brandon Sanderson publish at least 4 novels during 2023

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resolved Jan 1

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YES

ALL

To count for this question, the novel must be at least 50000 words and published in a physical form which is available to the public, between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2023.

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https://www.brandonsanderson.com/state-of-the-sanderson-2023/

"In this case, we’ve had five(!) new releases in one year."

Alex has just fraudulently resolved one of their other markets in order to turn a profit. I would strongly advise everyone to sell their shares here and not bet in any of Alex's future markets.

Also, please help keep other people safe from these sort of scams by going to the fraudulent market and clicking the flag in the top right corner to mark it as improperly resolved. If enough people do this, it will put a warning next to Alex's name everywhere on the site so that people know not to trust them.

predictedYES

@IsaacKing I would tip you if that was still a thing

predictedYES

Point of clarity - how do you resolve if his 4 Kickstarter books go out to backers, but aren't yet available in local bookstores?

Since my initial market (this one) was targetted a bit low (4 were already announced), I will create an option chain of markets for how many Sanderson will publish in 2023 :D Here is 5: https://manifold.markets/AlexRockwell/will-brandon-sanderson-publish-at-l-2d831ffef88f

What @MattP said

I should hope so, or a bunch of people are going to be very disappointed. https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/dragonsteel/surprise-four-secret-novels-by-brandon-sanderson

predictedYES

Those 4 are in addition to whatever else he puts out, so I'd put the chances here pretty dang high, unless he gets hit by a bus or something. Tbh even if he were to become incapacitated I bet those 4 novels would be published anyway.

@MattP Yeah Maybe I shouldve put 5. I looked at a schedule on wikipedia and saw 3 books listed... I wasnt sure exactly when all the secret novels were coming out.