Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2024?
➕
Plus
648
Ṁ540k
Jan 1
95%
chance
OpenAI announces leadership transition
The Verge reported that OpenAI's board of directors discussed reinstating Altman
Altman and Brockman appeared at OpenAI's headquarters to negotiate
Board instead appoints Emmett Shear as interim CEO
Microsoft hires former OpenAI CEO Sam Altman
The majority of OpenAI employees sign an open letter threatening to resign
Sam Altman to return as CEO of OpenAI

Resolves to YES if Sam Altman is CEO of OpenAI at the end of the year 2024. If he leaves and then returns before the end of the year this will still resolve to YES.

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possible arb: https://manifold.markets/SanghyeonSeo/will-the-openai-board-fire-sam-altm
Not exactly the same resolution criteria ofc.

Will we be discovering Sam Altman is using a special ungating AI tech for guiding the life and business decisions?

https://x.com/BobbyAllyn/status/1792679435701014908

predicts YES

Why isn't this >%95

predicts NO

@DanW end of 2024 is a long time!

predicts NO

This is end of 2024. He could rejoin but leave within a year

predicts NO

Kind of glad I was wrong

predicts NO

If this market's taught me anything, it's that it's not over 'til it's over.

https://fxtwitter.com/openai/status/1727205556136579362

Return of the king

I hope I am wrong

Hilarious graph

hodlers, this is when we make the real money B)

bought Ṁ20 YES from 11% to 12%
predicts YES

@BryceBowemd39 nvm

@BryceBowemd39 worked out well for us it seems

predicts YES

@JackGWhitaker (For now)

The hare is on the move.

predicts NO

@Undox sold my NO bags. I have no real feel for what the probability should be now.

predicts NO

Why is this so high? Is there some news about him potentially returning as CEO?

(Edit: Sorry for spam. Manifold didn't register that I had posted the comment, so I tried it again twice and then suddenly all three showed up.)

@PlasmaBallin yes. https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/18/23967199/breaking-openai-board-in-discussions-with-sam-altman-to-return-as-ceo for example

predicts NO

@PlasmaBallin for a few mana on NO bets I get to find out who the OpenAI insiders are.

Related market:

https://manifold.markets/AIC/by-what-date-if-ever-will-sam-altma?r=QUlD

predicts NO
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