Manifold AI Dashboard

Best Chatbot Arena Model in April

Google
47%
VS
OpenAI
20%
Release Timelines
Mar 2025
Apr 2025
May 2025
Jun 2025
Jul 2025
Aug 2025
Sep 2025
Oct 2025
Nov 2025
Dec 2025
Jan 2026
Feb 2026
Predictions for 2025

IMO Gold

77%

LLM gets IMO gold medal

SWE Bench

86.8%

Predicted top score

Humanity's Last Exam

58.5%

Predicted top score

CodeForces

4000+
Probability: 61%

Frontier Math

63.0%

Predicted top score

Hacking

37%

Probability of AI compromising systems by end of 2025

ASL-3 LLM Released

84%

Model defined as ASL-3 by Anthropic released by end of 2025

Long Term Predictions

ARC-AGI by 2030

79%

Chance of claiming the ARC-AGI grand prize

Turing Test+ by 2030

60%

Chance of passing Long Bets variation of the Turing Test

Millennium Prize by 2030

34%

Chance of solving a million-dollar math problem

AI Blackmail

78%

Risk of AI being used for automated blackmail by 2028

AI Romantic Companions

72%

At least 1/1000 Americans talks weekly with one by 2028

Discontinuous Change in Economic Variables

33%

Break in trend for GDP growth, GDP/capita, productivity, or unemployment by 2028

Zero-shot Human-level Game Performance

52%

AI plays a random computer game at human-level by 2028

Self-play Human-level Game Performance

80%

AI plays a random computer game as well as a human after self-play by 2028

The market expects AGI by 2031 . What do you think?

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