Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2024?
459
5K
Ṁ240KṀ3K
2025
89%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ11 +12%
New probability
89%
Resolves to YES if Sam Altman is CEO of OpenAI at the end of the year 2024. If he leaves and then returns before the end of the year this will still resolve to YES.
Get Ṁ500 play money
Related questions
Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI on January 1st 2024?
Milan W
Who will be on OpenAI's board of directors on 1 Jan 2024?
cshunter
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? (8000M subsidy)
firstuserhere
In a year, will we think that Sam Altman leaving OpenAI reduced AI risk?
Jonas Vollmer
Will OpenAI be valued more than $75 billion before the end of 2023?
Samuel
Will the OpenAI board release a report documenting the reasons or evidence for why they fired Sam Altman, by Christmas?
firstuserhere
Will Sam Altman be a co-founder of a serious OpenAI competitor by EOY 2024?
Zvi Mowshowitz
Did OpenAI posses a highly capable autonomous agent prior to ousting Sam Altman?
Bary Levy
Will annalise.ai receive any new venture funding by December 1, 2023?
Algorithmovigilance
What will OpenAI be valued at this year, in billions, assuming they close a deal?
Lars Doucet
Who will be on OpenAI's board of directors one year after Sam Altman's ouster?
cshunter
Will Sam Altman start a new AI company before June 2024?
firstuserhere
Will Ilya Sutskever continue at OpenAI til end 2023?
Ernie
Will Greg Brockman return to the board of OpenAI (the non-profit), by the end of 2023?
firstuserhere
Will OpenAI have at least 20% of its current staff in 3 weeks?
Mr Magnolia
If Microsoft gets a seat at the OpenAI board, will Sam Altman fill it?
firstuserhere
Sort by:
Plasma Ballin'predicts NO
Why is this so high? Is there some news about him potentially returning as CEO?
(Edit: Sorry for spam. Manifold didn't register that I had posted the comment, so I tried it again twice and then suddenly all three showed up.)
Undoxpredicts NO
@PlasmaBallin for a few mana on NO bets I get to find out who the OpenAI insiders are.
Related questions
Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI on January 1st 2024?
Milan W
Who will be on OpenAI's board of directors on 1 Jan 2024?
cshunter
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? (8000M subsidy)
firstuserhere
In a year, will we think that Sam Altman leaving OpenAI reduced AI risk?
Jonas Vollmer
Will OpenAI be valued more than $75 billion before the end of 2023?
Samuel
Will the OpenAI board release a report documenting the reasons or evidence for why they fired Sam Altman, by Christmas?
firstuserhere
Will Sam Altman be a co-founder of a serious OpenAI competitor by EOY 2024?
Zvi Mowshowitz
Did OpenAI posses a highly capable autonomous agent prior to ousting Sam Altman?
Bary Levy
Will annalise.ai receive any new venture funding by December 1, 2023?
Algorithmovigilance
What will OpenAI be valued at this year, in billions, assuming they close a deal?
Lars Doucet
Who will be on OpenAI's board of directors one year after Sam Altman's ouster?
cshunter
Will Sam Altman start a new AI company before June 2024?
firstuserhere
Will Ilya Sutskever continue at OpenAI til end 2023?
Ernie
Will Greg Brockman return to the board of OpenAI (the non-profit), by the end of 2023?
firstuserhere
Will OpenAI have at least 20% of its current staff in 3 weeks?
Mr Magnolia
If Microsoft gets a seat at the OpenAI board, will Sam Altman fill it?
firstuserhere
Would the general public narrative about why Sam Altman was fired from OpenAI be significantly different 1 year later?
firstuserhere
Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of January 2024?
Brian T. Edwards
Who will be the members of the board controlling OpenAI by the end of the year 2023?
notarealuser
Will OpenAI keep the "leadership transition" blog post?
ayylmao