Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2024?

Resolves to YES if Sam Altman is CEO of OpenAI at the end of the year 2024. If he leaves and then returns before the end of the year this will still resolve to YES.

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impromptublue avatar
impromptubluepredicts NO

This is end of 2024. He could rejoin but leave within a year

ShawnaStegall avatar
Shawna Stegallpredicts NO

Kind of glad I was wrong

MaxMorehead avatar
Maxpredicts NO

If this market's taught me anything, it's that it's not over 'til it's over.

AI avatar
AIbought Ṁ600 of YES


Return of the king

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
gallerdude avatar
Jack Gallerbought Ṁ330 of NO

I hope I am wrong

colorednoise avatar
colorednoisesold Ṁ35 of NO

Hilarious graph

BryceBowemd39 avatar
Bryce Bowe (md39)bought Ṁ100 of YES

hodlers, this is when we make the real money B)

BryceBowemd39 avatar
Bryce Bowe (md39) bought Ṁ20 YES from 11% to 12%
BryceBowemd39 avatar
Bryce Bowe (md39)predicts YES
JackGWhitaker avatar
Jack Gross-Whitakerbought Ṁ100 of YES

@BryceBowemd39 worked out well for us it seems

JackGWhitaker avatar
Jack Gross-Whitakerpredicts YES

@JackGWhitaker (For now)

Undox avatar
Undoxbought Ṁ24 of YES

The hare is on the move.

Undox avatar
Undoxpredicts NO

@Undox sold my NO bags. I have no real feel for what the probability should be now.

PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts NO

Why is this so high? Is there some news about him potentially returning as CEO?

(Edit: Sorry for spam. Manifold didn't register that I had posted the comment, so I tried it again twice and then suddenly all three showed up.)

Undox avatar
Undoxpredicts NO

@PlasmaBallin for a few mana on NO bets I get to find out who the OpenAI insiders are.

PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts NO
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PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'bought Ṁ10 of NO
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Sphinxfire avatar


Aboczjr avatar
Andrew Bocz

Just a reminder this does not resolve until the end of 2024

Undox avatar

@Aboczjr plenty of time for Sams new company to buy OpenAI

Abraxas avatar
Abraxasbought Ṁ142 of NO

@Aboczjr What if he returns then leaves again and is not CEO at end of 2024?

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicts NO

@Abraxas I have a market for that too 😂