Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2024?
Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2024?
resolved by
658
3.2kṀ600k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES
OpenAI announces leadership transition
Nov 17
The Verge reported that OpenAI's board of directors discussed reinstating Altman
Nov 18
Altman and Brockman appeared at OpenAI's headquarters to negotiate
Nov 19
Board instead appoints Emmett Shear as interim CEO
Nov 20
Microsoft hires former OpenAI CEO Sam Altman
Nov 20
The majority of OpenAI employees sign an open letter threatening to resign
Nov 20
Sam Altman to return as CEO of OpenAI
Nov 22

Resolves to YES if Sam Altman is CEO of OpenAI at the end of the year 2024. If he leaves and then returns before the end of the year this will still resolve to YES.

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2mo

Made a continuation of this market for 2025:

Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2025?86%‌

10mo

possible arb: https://manifold.markets/SanghyeonSeo/will-the-openai-board-fire-sam-altm
Not exactly the same resolution criteria ofc.

10mo

Will we be discovering Sam Altman is using a special ungating AI tech for guiding the life and business decisions?

10mo

https://x.com/BobbyAllyn/status/1792679435701014908

1y
predictedYES 1y

Why isn't this >%95

predictedNO 1y

@DanW end of 2024 is a long time!

predictedNO 1y

This is end of 2024. He could rejoin but leave within a year

predictedNO 1y

Kind of glad I was wrong

predictedNO

If this market's taught me anything, it's that it's not over 'til it's over.

https://fxtwitter.com/openai/status/1727205556136579362

Return of the king

1y
1y

I hope I am wrong

1y

Hilarious graph

1y

hodlers, this is when we make the real money B)

bought Ṁ20 YES from 11% to 12% 1y
predictedYES 1y

@BryceBowemd39 nvm

1y

@BryceBowemd39 worked out well for us it seems

predictedYES 1y

@JackGWhitaker (For now)

1y

The hare is on the move.

predictedNO 1y

@Undox sold my NO bags. I have no real feel for what the probability should be now.

predictedNO

Why is this so high? Is there some news about him potentially returning as CEO?

(Edit: Sorry for spam. Manifold didn't register that I had posted the comment, so I tried it again twice and then suddenly all three showed up.)

1y

@PlasmaBallin yes. https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/18/23967199/breaking-openai-board-in-discussions-with-sam-altman-to-return-as-ceo for example

predictedNO 1y

@PlasmaBallin for a few mana on NO bets I get to find out who the OpenAI insiders are.

predictedNO 1y
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1y
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