Will the OpenAI board fire Sam Altman again in 2024?

The OpenAI board fired Sam Altman in 2023, see Wikipedia. While Sam Altman returned, he is a habitual liar and many problems with him have not been resolved, so it is conceivable that the board may fire him again, to uphold the non-profit mission.

Will this happen in 2024?

Get Ṁ600 play money
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bought Ṁ10 NO

You're telling me some people actually believe "The Sam Altman enablers" might actually fire the guy?

@Lukaorevic My model of the board is that they can react to the change in environment. (I agree it is doubtful whether they can act first.) Stated another way, the board are Sam Altman enablers not Sam Altman minions.

@SanghyeonSeo Hmm alright

This market asks a question closer to the thing you probably actually care about: https://manifold.markets/cash/will-sam-altman-cease-to-be-ceo-of-3357f67fc799

bought Ṁ300 NO

How does this market resolve if sam altman resigns?

@RyanGreenblatt It resolves NO. Although not immediately, Sam Altman already returned once, so in theory he can resign, return, and then get fired again, and year end is not that far away anyway.

I don't think this is ideal, but too many people have bet already and I think I should follow the plain meaning of words.

I want to bet yes but I feel like he might resign preemptively and not technically be fired

bought Ṁ12 YES

Guys got inconsistent candor.

See also /c5c9/will-sam-altman-be-considered-a-gri. Since Sam Altman is in fact a grifter, he should be considered one, but it may or may not happen. Resolves to poll.


Sam Altman is a habitual liar and should be fired again.

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