41. Will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction, in 2023?
187
2.1kṀ59k
resolved Jan 9
Resolved
NO

See https://www.surgehq.ai/blog/dall-e-vs-imagen-and-evaluating-astral-codex-tens-3000-ai-bet . Scott and Edwin will try to get the top image models of late 2023 to try the specific questions in the bet. If we can’t access the models, then Edwin can use public demos of the image models and his own best guess to resolve this as either likely true, likely false, or unclear. Edwin believes current AI models have not won the bet, so if there is no clear progress he should resolve the bet false. If Edwin is unwilling to judge this, Gary Marcus will be used as the substitute; if neither of these two people will do it, the question resolves as unclear.

This is question #41 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ5,338
2Ṁ1,124
3Ṁ1,112
4Ṁ1,104
5Ṁ751
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy