Will future language models converge on "what Einstein would have thought of Many-Worlds?" before 2036?

15

118

Ṁ374Ṁ1k

2035

48%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Get Ṁ600 play money

Sort by:

The idea is: Imagine that best methods for integrating all text data were as well-understood as using odds ratios to aggregate bits of evidence. An LM properly trained just for predictive ability should do that in the limit.

Technically such convergent answers can remain uncertain, though this one shouldn't, for a reasonable context and manner in which he were asked.

## Related questions

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

42% chance

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

48% chance

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

67% chance

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

48% chance

Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035?

45% chance

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

21% chance

Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?

18% chance

Will AI extend English before 2031?

47% chance

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

36% chance

Will language models be able to solve simple graphical mazes by the end of 2025?

65% chance