AAP's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -5.39
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when AAP bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
40%
50%
- Will the right wing party AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) in Germany be above 20% in surveys at the end of the year?YESṀ40
- Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?YESṀ20
- Will my girlfriend fall asleep watching dune at the cinema this evening?YESṀ10
60%
- Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?YESṀ50
- Will the right wing party AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) in Germany be above 20% in surveys at the end of the year?YESṀ50
- Will 2023's temperature exceed previous years' for 30 days in a row again (in the rest of the year)?YESṀ20