Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?
Dec 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill is passed by both the US House and Senate before 2025 that has the effect of banning use of TikTok under its present ownership (ByteDance) by at least a majority of Americans. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the bill in question requires TikTok to be sold, and effectively bans the app if it is not sold in the future, this will suffice to resolve the market to "Yes".

(Note: Resolves to the YES option if a law or bill is passed even if the said bill has not been enacted to executioned yet)

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opened a Ṁ7,000 YES at 96% order

New article by ABC:

Cantwell was an obstacle to the House's previous bill to force a sale or ban of TikTok, which passed in March and then stalled in the Senate. But she's since come around, saying last week that House Republicans earned her support by amending their legislation to extend the deadline for when ByteDance would be required to sell the app from six months to a year after the law were to go into effect.

The TikTok measure could still be stripped out of the foreign aid legislation in the Senate, but that would require the entire package to be sent back to the House for another vote -- at the same time that lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have stressed urgency for acting on the additional money for Ukraine and Israel.

I think this is pretty much over. Maybe it gets held up in court, but passage seems certain to me. Take my limit orders if you disagree!

bought Ṁ10 YES

Not looking good for TkTok

sold Ṁ205 YES

@SemioticRivalry do you know when the Senate is going to vote on this because I got a lil mixed up today

@AndrewCrosse probably around tuesday


Reporting from Axios a few minutes ago summarizing the latest developments:

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sold Ṁ91 NO

Holy cow. The addition of fees completely messes with my betting strategy. I guess it's to make the markets more realistic but it changes so much

@AndrewCrosse how do you guys feel about manifold adding fees to markets. I feel like it partially rules out people who optimize a lot of small profit trades. Maybe that's what they were going for.

@AndrewCrosse It brings it in line with real money markets, but not necessarily in a good way. One of things I like least about Predictit.

@MarkHamill I see I lost a little bit of mana because I wasn't used to the fees. I mean I'm sure I will get used to it but it kinda just messes up a lot of my trades

Seeing this market pump all the way to 76 for no reason is crazy

@SemioticRivalry I saw that article too

@SemioticRivalry but doesn't really mean that much

@AndrewCrosse This was news to me. Previous narrative had been that Cantwell was hesitant because it was too hard on Tiktok not too soft. Perhaps you were just better informed than the rest of the market!

> Senate Commerce Committee Chair Maria Cantwell of Washington said in a brief interview she has proposed changes to a TikTok bill that the House passed last month to help ensure it survives a legal challenge. Her suggestions include giving ByteDance up to a year to divest itself of the social media platform — longer than the six-month time frame in the House measure.

@WillSorenson I see my

bought Ṁ50 YES

It’s stuck in the Senate Commerce Committee. Chair Cantwell is known for slowing bills down (such as the Chips Act in 2022). She says she wants minor amendments but hasn't decided what. Schumer is talking to her this week to try to get it to the floor. Other Dems won’t let her stall for a whole year.


Hhmm as time goes on this market is just gonna go lower and lower in percent and become more unpredictable. Especially now that the hype has died

@AndrewCrosse My guess is they want to get it passed at least 180 days before Election Day, so that would put a soft deadline at May 9, 2024 to get it signed into law.

Seeing this market at 37% is crazy

is there any precedent for a bill passing the house with 84% and then failing in the senate?

@JonathanRay it does not sound that strange to me, especially if the composition of senate and house are different and they have been more different in the past.

@Odoacre What process could make the composition of the house and senate so different that their votes differ by 40% on the same bill? I think anything that passes the house with >80% is >95% likely to get a majority in the senate until I see some specific counterexamples

@JonathanRay most of the NO probability is in the bill simply never getting a vote.

@SemioticRivalry well yeah it's too easy for campaign contributions to bribe a couple of committee members to kill the bill there before it ever gets to a floor vote

@JonathanRay the chairwoman of the committee hates the bill but a discharge petition only requires a simple majority so I made this market: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-there-be-a-successful-discharg-b6ea20ab04de

@JonathanRay I believe discharge petitions only apply to the House.

@JonathanRay this market implies there's roughly a 52% chance at this moment

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