This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill is passed by both the US House and Senate before 2025 that has the effect of banning use of TikTok under its present ownership (ByteDance) by at least a majority of Americans. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the bill in question requires TikTok to be sold, and effectively bans the app if it is not sold in the future, this will suffice to resolve the market to "Yes".
(Note: Resolves to the YES option if a law or bill is passed even if the said bill has not been enacted to executioned yet)
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@LeonardoKr ggwp! I think I switched from being the biggest no holder at one point to the biggest yes holder so it's been a hell of a ride 😅
@SemioticRivalry I think my initial reason for buying no was that Trump came out against it, but that ending up not mattering much in the end.
@Joshua Its all unironically his plan to get the ban passed so he can then pin it on Biden. Same thing with border security, that's why the supplemental got held up for months, bc trump can't just admit this out loud.
@SemioticRivalry my thesis was that the Senate would be less idiotic/more pro-business than they ended up being. Didn't pan out; happy to take the over at ~equal odds on the Senate being pro-business again.
Related question on enforcement of the ban: https://manifold.markets/nsokolsky/will-i-be-able-to-open-tiktokcom-fr
Cantwell was an obstacle to the House's previous bill to force a sale or ban of TikTok, which passed in March and then stalled in the Senate. But she's since come around, saying last week that House Republicans earned her support by amending their legislation to extend the deadline for when ByteDance would be required to sell the app from six months to a year after the law were to go into effect.
The TikTok measure could still be stripped out of the foreign aid legislation in the Senate, but that would require the entire package to be sent back to the House for another vote -- at the same time that lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have stressed urgency for acting on the additional money for Ukraine and Israel.
I think this is pretty much over. Maybe it gets held up in court, but passage seems certain to me. Take my limit orders if you disagree!
@SemioticRivalry do you know when the Senate is going to vote on this because I got a lil mixed up today
@AndrewCrosse how do you guys feel about manifold adding fees to markets. I feel like it partially rules out people who optimize a lot of small profit trades. Maybe that's what they were going for.
@AndrewCrosse It brings it in line with real money markets, but not necessarily in a good way. One of things I like least about Predictit.
@MarkHamill I see I lost a little bit of mana because I wasn't used to the fees. I mean I'm sure I will get used to it but it kinda just messes up a lot of my trades