Will 2023's temperature exceed previous years' for 30 days in a row again (in the rest of the year)?
36
465
710
resolved Sep 14
Resolved
YES

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

Will there be a period of consecutive 30 days in which the line for 2023 is above* the lines for all the other years?

*In case the temperatures on the graph are equal for 2023 and some other year, the data with 3 decimal points available on the website will be checked. Resolves YES if the 2023 temperature is strictly greater each day. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/json/cfsr_world_t2_day.json

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This claim starts 23 July 2023 so I assume it has to be after this. 14 Aug is lower than 2016 so we are back to 0 consecutive days and 30 day period has to start again.

predicted NO
bought Ṁ20 of YES

@na_pewno It's been higher again starting on the 15th, so by my count, staying higher up to and including Sep 13 would be sufficient. Visually it looks fairly likely to me.

I found your description somewhat confusing, the "this" in "A longer term version of this market (the streak can occur later in the year)" I didn't know whether it was referring to the embedded market that followed the sentence or the question to which this comment belongs. It took me a minute to clear my confusion up.

The case for this occurring later in the year: The effects of El Niño on temperature are supposed to get stronger throughout the year, and it seems like June has been surprisingly hot for some other reason which might continue to affect temperatures.