Resolves YES if approval polls around the end of March seem to suggest that Milei has a positive approval rating greater than 40%.
Positive is interpreted to include options like “Good” and “Very Good” but not “Leaning positive” or “Regular to positive”.
I’ll prefer polls with better methodology when judging and try to only include those that refer to the image of Milei itself, but I might use polls asking for an evaluation of his government if information is lacking.
A recent after-election poll suggested this is currently ~53% (Aresco Poll, Dec 15th 2023).
I won’t be betting on this market.
The market was inspired by this tweet: https://x.com/trueslazac/status/1736183983841456248?s=46
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ238 | |
| 2 | Ṁ59 | |
| 3 | Ṁ42 | |
| 4 | Ṁ18 | |
| 5 | Ṁ17 |
@chrisjbillington 47.7% in mid-March:
https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/por-una-decima-una-encuesta-evaluo-el-nivel-de-rechazo-y-aprobacion-de-la-gestion-de-milei-en-sus-nid19032024/
Another one gives 51.5% in mid-March:
https://www.lavoz.com.ar/politica/encuesta-a-100-dias-de-milei-del-estoy-peor-que-antes-a-la-aprobacion-del-515/