Will the FDP be in the Bavarian State Parliament at the end of 2023?
Basic
37
Ṁ11k
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO

This question will resolve YES if at least two members of the Bavarian State Parliament are members of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) on New Year’s Eve 2023, NO otherwise.

 

Note that an election is scheduled for October and a party needs at least 5% of the vote to get seats. You can see a current collection of polls here.

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@kottsiek Whoopsie! Yes, just misclicked, this is unambiguously a NO. I’ll ask on the discord for a re-resolve

@NcyRocks Plz send help

@1941159478 Unresolved. Feel free to re-resolve.

predictedNO

@1941159478 Why was this resolved YES?

@dp9000 Thanks for the pointer, my bad!

predictedNO

Summing up this market, it only less than 23% for 5+% compared to the 37% here.

FDP needs to achieve 5% (only barely last time) and CSU needs to be unable to govern alone. Even if that is true, CSU still must decide to not continue the coalition with FW. Thus, 30% feels quite high to me.

predictedNO

@marktweise also arbitrage with:

predictedYES

@marktweise This market was intended to just be about the FDP getting past the 5% threshold into parliament though, not about them being part of the government.

predictedNO

@1941159478 you ... are right. Thanks for pointing it out. 🤣

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