Will the FDP be in the Bavarian State Parliament at the end of 2023?

710Ṁ11k

resolved Jan 3

Resolved

ALL

This question will resolve YES if at least two members of the Bavarian State Parliament are members of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) on New Year’s Eve 2023, NO otherwise.

Note that an election is scheduled for October and a party needs at least 5% of the vote to get seats. You can see a current collection of polls here.

FDP (Freie Demokraten)

New Year's Resolutions 2024

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ188
2		Ṁ165
3		Ṁ111
4		Ṁ104
5		Ṁ89

People are also trading

Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP)

1% chance

Will the FDP receive more than 5% of the vote in the next German federal election (regularly in 2029)?

41% chance

Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?

57% chance

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

23% chance

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

59% chance

Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) be part of the German government by 2026?

1% chance

Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030?

8% chance

WIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?

31% chance

Will AfD get 21+% in 2029 German Federal Elections?

71% chance

Will the CDU in eastern german states try to form a government with the far-right AfD after the next election?

Sort by:

predictedNO

misresolved @SirSalty

Proof: https://www.bayern.landtag.de/en/members/parliamentary-groups/

@kottsiek Whoopsie! Yes, just misclicked, this is unambiguously a NO. I’ll ask on the discord for a re-resolve

@NcyRocks Plz send help

@1941159478 Unresolved. Feel free to re-resolve.

@chrisjbillington Thanks!

predictedNO

@1941159478 Why was this resolved YES?

@dp9000 Thanks for the pointer, my bad!

predictedNO

Summing up this market, it only less than 23% for 5+% compared to the 37% here.

FDP needs to achieve 5% (only barely last time) and CSU needs to be unable to govern alone. Even if that is true, CSU still must decide to not continue the coalition with FW. Thus, 30% feels quite high to me.

predictedNO

@marktweise also arbitrage with:

predictedYES

@marktweise This market was intended to just be about the FDP getting past the 5% threshold into parliament though, not about them being part of the government.