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https://www.br.de/nachrichten/bayern/br-informationen-judith-gerlach-wird-gesundheitsministerin,TuuuaAZ

Neues Kabinett steht - Söder: Kontinuität und Erneuerung

Vier Wochen nach der Landtagswahl ist das neue bayerische Kabinett vereidigt worden. Judith Gerlach ist neue Gesundheitsministerin, Eric Beißwenger Europaminister. Laut Ministerpräsident Söder steht seine Regierung für Kontinuität und Erneuerung.

@marktweise How will you resolve if two parties will form the government? Both parties to 100%?

A more general question: How much would that change the value of CSU shares?

@fwave So far I would just use the defaults. Example:

@marktweise understood, thank you!

@marktweise What does default mean? If it's two parties, the bigger party gets 75% share, and the smaller one gets 25%?

@Simon74fe It's split relative to their current percentages. Currently, it would be 76% and 24%.

@marktweise Why would you do that? So if e.g., SPD got into the government, it would only pay like 1 or 2%?

@Simon74fe Your SPD example is correct. If we do it differently, it creates weird incentives and the percentages would not reflect probabilities anymore.

@marktweise What weird incentives would splitting equally (e.g. 50/50 if it's two parties) create? I think the way you want to resolve it creates really weird incentives. Let's say for example I think SPD has 5% chance. I buy SPD up to 5%. Share SPD would then be maybe 7% if you resolve it as CSU+SPD. So my expected value for SPD shares is 0.05x0.07=0.0035 ?

@Simon74fe With a 50/50 split it makes no sense to bet on CSU above 50%. Shareholders should actually sell as it is currently at 74%. If you bought YES at say 60%, you would lose money even if you bet correctly.

Well, there is no way to show real probabilities here. For example, what should I bet if I think both CSU and FW have 90% chance of making it?

If you want real probabilities you need separate markets

@Simon74fe Yes, I agree that resolving to multiples is weird in general. I try to avoid it these days.

The correct way in my understanding is to divide the probability by the assumed count, in your example "two": 90% / 2 = 45%. So betting up FW towards 45% would be the tactic.

@marketwise Yes exactly. So I would buy some FW shares to correct the price. But then somebody buys CSU to 70, FW falls to 25, market closes, and I might lose mana even if my FW prediction turns out to be correct because you resolve it proportional to current price??

@Simon74fe Yes, it is weird either way.

@marketwise I think your way is more weird haha. It's like a prediction market with a keynesian beauty contest on top

@Simon74fe Manifold now has a new market type for this. https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-are-all-the-people-who-will-be?r=bWFya2V0d2lzZQ

Who are all the people who will be Time Person of The Year through 2028? [Unlinked Free Response]

New answer type! All options are unlinked from other options, and will resolve either 0% or 100%. Options can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open until the end of 2028. Any submitted name that is made Time's Person of The Year in any year through 2028 will resolve yes. Any abstract concept/group that I judge to be synonymous with an abstract concept/group that is named Person of the Year will also resolve yes. Feel free to submit answers that are duplicates or close synonyms to existing answers, I'll resolve all correct options to the full 100%.

Arbitrage possible: