Currently in the second Söder cabinet, CSU+FW form Bavaria's government. Previously, it was CSU-only, CSU-only, and CSU+FDP.
Resolves to all parties which are part of the next government, thus potentially multiple answers.
This market shall close before the result is know. The close date is initially set to the day before the election in case a single majority is reached. If coalition negotiations come up, I may delay the close to one week after the election.
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ141 | |
| 2 | Ṁ25 | |
| 3 | Ṁ15 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 | |
| 5 | Ṁ14 |
@marktweise How will you resolve if two parties will form the government? Both parties to 100%?
A more general question: How much would that change the value of CSU shares?
@marktweise Why would you do that? So if e.g., SPD got into the government, it would only pay like 1 or 2%?
@Simon74fe Your SPD example is correct. If we do it differently, it creates weird incentives and the percentages would not reflect probabilities anymore.
@marktweise What weird incentives would splitting equally (e.g. 50/50 if it's two parties) create? I think the way you want to resolve it creates really weird incentives. Let's say for example I think SPD has 5% chance. I buy SPD up to 5%. Share SPD would then be maybe 7% if you resolve it as CSU+SPD. So my expected value for SPD shares is 0.05x0.07=0.0035 ?
@Simon74fe With a 50/50 split it makes no sense to bet on CSU above 50%. Shareholders should actually sell as it is currently at 74%. If you bought YES at say 60%, you would lose money even if you bet correctly.
@Simon74fe Yes, I agree that resolving to multiples is weird in general. I try to avoid it these days.
The correct way in my understanding is to divide the probability by the assumed count, in your example "two": 90% / 2 = 45%. So betting up FW towards 45% would be the tactic.
@marketwise Yes exactly. So I would buy some FW shares to correct the price. But then somebody buys CSU to 70, FW falls to 25, market closes, and I might lose mana even if my FW prediction turns out to be correct because you resolve it proportional to current price??
@marketwise I think your way is more weird haha. It's like a prediction market with a keynesian beauty contest on top
@Simon74fe Manifold now has a new market type for this. https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-are-all-the-people-who-will-be?r=bWFya2V0d2lzZQ
