This will resolve based on the share of the total votes going to the Free Democratic Party (FDP) in the 

 on 8 October. This is about the sum of first and second votes, the main metric in the Bavarian system. I will use the preliminary results, exclude invalid votes and will not round the percentages before choosing the bucket.

If the election does not happen for some reason, I will resolve this N/A. See here for a current list of polls: 

https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm