Will Hezbollah launch an attack inside Israel proper before October 1st?
10
แน2067Oct 2
66%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"An attack" is deliberately somewhat vague, but could include rockets, drones, a cyberattack, or something similar to the pager attack that just happened.
"Israel proper" means excluding the West Bank. "Before October 1st" resolves according to US Pacific time.
Get แน1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will Israel invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024?
28% chance
Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?
81% chance
Will Israel launch a war on Hezbollah before the end of 2024?
60% chance
Will Israeli troops enter the country of Lebanon before the end of September?
30% chance
Will Hezbollah launch a missile at Tel Aviv in 2024?
38% chance
Will Israeli troops enter the country of Lebanon before the end of Halloween?
45% chance
One month from today, will Israel have declared war on Hezbollah or Lebanon?
32% chance
Will Hezbollah attack Cyprus before EOY 2025?
15% chance
Will Hezbollah attack northern Israel before Sept. 2024, similarly to how Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7?
9% chance
Will the US use lethal weaponry to directly help Israel counter an attack on Israel before October 1, 2024?
17% chance