Will Israel invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as "Yes" if, after July 15, 2024, and before October 1, 2024, either the Government of Israel or any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that Israeli ground troops have entered Lebanese territory, and reporting from credible sources indicates that the number of troops entering is more than 100. From the credible sources, it must be clear that the troops are acting deliberately on orders of the Government of Israel and without permission of the currently recognized Government of Lebanon or the assent of the United Nations.

The announcements must describe events that take place (at least in part) between the launch of this question and October 1, 2024.

For the purpose of this question, Lebanese territory is determined by the 2000 Blue Line.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.