Will Hezbollah launch a missile at Tel Aviv in 2024?
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resolved Sep 25
Resolved
YES

Will resolve to YES if a missile is launched by Hezbollah targeting Tel Aviv, irrespective of whether it is intercepted or succeeds in hitting its target.

I will consult statements by Hezbollah, as well as major newspapers (NYT, WSJ, etc.) before making a decision to resolve.

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bought Ṁ800 YES

@ShakedKoplewitz in related news, I need to figure out how to get into my neighbors' bomb shelter because apparently I have the wrong building code.

Israeli Media reports that this morning’s Ballistic Missile Interception which occurred over the Tel Aviv Metropolitan Area, was carried out by the “David's Sling” Medium-Range Anti-Ballistic Missile System, which is designed for the Interception of Short-Range Missiles.

@ICRainbow Lol, medium range = short range, that's very funny.

@nathanwei medium range rocket = short range missile maybe?

bought Ṁ250 NO

@Epistemic_Hygiene can you clarify what you mean by “missile” and whether an unguided rocket counts? In military parlance, missiles are guided while rockets are not, while the press sometimes confuses the two.

I intended it in the military sense. To keep things as objective as possible, I will count the weapon as a missile if its Wikipedia entry describes it as a “missile”.

Excellent! Thanks for the clarification!