Will Israeli troops enter the country of Lebanon before the end of September?
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resolved Oct 1
Resolved
YES

end of sept israel time zone

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IDF acknowledges, surely resolves yes:

https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776

is this enough to resolve?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/30/israel-threatens-what-could-be-ground-offensive-against-hezbollah-in-lebanon

>Israeli forces appeared to have launched what sources called “limited ground operations” targeting Hezbollah inside southern Lebanon, US and other officials said late on Monday.

“This is what they have informed us that they are currently conducting, which are limited operations targeting Hezbollah infrastructure near the border,” a state department spokesperson, Matthew Miller, told journalists.

US State Dept confirmation of limited ground operations

bought Ṁ50 NO

Lmao I bet on this without looking it up. Was actually planning to visit Beirut next month xD next time I guess

Polymarket is at 88%, YES was proposed twice and disputed twice. Should be fun.

@Joshua crazy to lose 1000s of dollars over semantic minutia

@Joshua oh joy lol

Well I guess they can invade this week but not before tomorrow,you have to understand that there are important jewish holidays in the coming day since it's their new year.

@beaver1 @strutheo does this resolve?

@derpy find me some other sources i cant tell right now

bought Ṁ25 YES

@strutheo https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/30/israeli-troops-cross-into-lebanon-for-targeted-operations/

Israeli troops launched targeted operations in southern Lebanon on Monday as the army widened its campaign against Hezbollah ahead of a possible ground invasion.

Israel’s ground operation in southern Lebanon will likely expand in the coming days, a source told the Telegraph, suggesting Israel wanted to strike while they believe Hezbollah is weakened.

An Israeli official added that elite commandos were targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons sites and command and control centres, in a bid to push its fighters away from Israel’s northern border.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/30/world/israel-lebanon-hezbollahCrisis

Israeli commando units have made brief incursions into Lebanese territory in recent days to prepare for a possible wider invasion targeting Hezbollah, although no decision has yet been made about whether or when to begin one, officials said.

The raids — confirmed by six Israeli officers and officials, and one Western official — have focused on gathering intelligence about Hezbollah positions close to Israel’s northern border, as well as on identifying Hezbollah tunnels and military infrastructure in preparation to attack them from the air or the ground.

The officials all spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive military matter. The incursions follow months of similar covert missions in which Israeli special forces briefly crossed the Lebanon border for reconnaissance, but have increased in intensity in recent days as commanders prepared for a wider maneuver, three of the officials said.

bought Ṁ5 YES

All the other articles I've seen seem to be mainly citing those three, but that's still three major newspapers saying they've spoken to a number of different officials confirming this.

Given these are allegedly somewhat covert ops, I think that's as good as you're going to get.

@MugaSofer Ground reconnaissance missions are typically not considered has invasion unfortunately.

@MathYeuxSommet This is the market for whether "troops enter", the market for whether "Israel invades" is much lower last I checked for that exact reason.

@MathYeuxSommet It's boots on the ground man, not light infantry scouting, it's special ops in full gear lol