Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah before the end of 2024?
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bought Ṁ150 YES

Missile and rocket alerts across Sea of Galilee towns this morning. The furthest Hezbollah aimed into Israel so far. With Gantz having left the government and Netanyahu having to rely on Ben Gvir and Smotrich who already called for war against Hezbollah, I think it's much more likely now.

Please check the following market, it seems to be miscalibrated relative to this one.

Can get some clarification please? By "declare war" do you I mean Israel issuing an official proclamation declaring a state of war between it and Hezbollah? A declaration of ground offensive against Hezbollah? What about actions that implies state of war? Sending soldiers to cross the border and attack a foreign country is practically a declaration of war by implication. That being said a state of war already exists between Israel and Hezbollah. Rocket and drone fire have been exchanged in significant quantities on a regular basis for months now.

So to boil it down: what exactly are we waiting for here?

@strutheo can we get a ruling? Further clarification pls

Hezbollah is by far the biggest threat to Israel's survival right now. Not surprised if they attack, especially given Bibi's ultra-hawkish stance on diplomacy matters

The real question is if Israel will declare way on Hezbollah before I come back from Manifest

It depends on the exact definition of declaring war. I'm not sure if Russia has even now "declared war" on Ukraine. But in a common sense "de facto" way, I'll say yes.

bought Ṁ50 YES

My money's on yes: the national government of unity is unpopular and desperately trying to hold onto power, and I can see them trying to BS their way through this muddle by officially declaring war on Hezbollah

De facto it’s a three front war (gaza, west bank, golan) but the issue imho is whether declaring war on hezbollah is tantamount to declaring war on (and potentially encroaching on /invading) Lebanon.

@KeenenW under the jcdm account haha

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