Will Hezbollah attack Cyprus before EOY 2025?
Will Hezbollah attack Cyprus before EOY 2025?
24
10kṀ42kDec 31
5%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Hezbollah has threatened to attack Cyprus: https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/18/middleeast/hezbollah-drone-video-israel-haifa-intl-latam/index.html
Resolution according to whether we have verifiable evidence of an attack.
I will not bet in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Hezbollah attack northern Israel before Sept. 2024, similarly to how Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7?
5% chance
Will Hezbollah take hostages?
2% chance
Will Syria recognize Israel by EOY 2025?
14% chance
Will Israeli strikes kill any Irish peacekeepers in Lebanon by the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?
7% chance
Will Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?
10% chance