Resolution criteria

This market is configured as a binary (Yes/No) question, but does not name a specific party, candidate, or threshold (e.g., whether Likud wins the most seats, or whether Benjamin Netanyahu forms the next government).

By default, this market will resolve according to the candidate or condition explicitly designated by the market creator. If left unspecified:

• YES: The incumbent prime minister's party (Likud) wins the plurality of seats in the Knesset elected on October 27, 2026, according to the official results certified by the Central Elections Committee (CEC).

• NO: Any other political party wins a plurality of seats, or there is an exact tie for the largest share of seats.

Alternatively, the market creator may edit the title/criteria prior to resolution to clarify the specific candidate or bloc intended (e.g., whether Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister following coalition formation, or whether the opposition bloc secures a 61-seat majority).

Background

The election for the 26th Knesset was scheduled for October 27, 2026, following the completion of the 25th Knesset's statutory term. Under Israel’s nationwide closed-list proportional representation system, voters cast ballots for political party slates rather than individual leaders.

A total of 120 seats are contested, requiring an electoral threshold of 3.25% to qualify for seat allocation. Because single parties rarely, if ever, capture an outright 61-seat parliamentary majority, "winning" in Israeli elections typically involves either winning the largest single bloc of seats or building a governing coalition of at least 61 Knesset members to pass a vote of confidence.

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